$AAPL Trades at 33x Forward Earnings Despite iPhone Revenue Stalling Since 2021

Apple's iPhone business stopped growing four years ago, yet the stock kept getting more expensive. iPhone sales grew from $45 billion when Tim Cook took over to more than $200 billion, then stalled near $200 billion since 2021. Over the same stretch, the stock re-rated to 33x forward earnings, nearly double the S&P 500's 20x, even as Apple grows profits at roughly half the market's pace.
That leaves a premium growth multiple attached to a business that has stopped growing. AI, the one catalyst that could restart growth, is also where Apple is seen as behind, with some arguing the device that eventually replaces the iPhone could come from OpenAI while Apple plays catch-up.
Apple is one of the largest weights in the S&P 500, so a de-rating of this size would drag the index down with it, a risk borne by anyone who owns the broader market.