Galaxy Cuts CLARITY Act 2026 Passage Odds to Just 30%

The odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law this year are falling sharply.
Galaxy Research has cut its estimated probability of passage to just 30% as the Senate runs out of time to resolve key disputes and secure the 60 votes needed to advance the bill.
With comprehensive legislation increasingly uncertain, the SEC and CFTC are continuing to push crypto policy forward through rulemaking, guidance, exemptions and other administrative measures.
That can provide the industry with regulatory relief even without Congress.
But there is a major difference: agency actions do not have the permanence of federal legislation and can potentially be reversed by a future administration.
For crypto, regulatory progress may continue even if CLARITY fails — but the long-term legal foundation would remain much less secure.