Viral JPMorgan "Food Crisis" Warning Overstates USDA Grocery Forecast, Analysis Finds

A JPMorgan (JPM) fertilizer analysis has been recirculating alongside a claim that grocery prices could jump 12.3% in 2027, but that figure is reportedly the upper bound of a 95% prediction interval, not a forecast. The USDA Economic Research Service's actual midpoint forecast is 2.9%, with a lower bound of negative 5.6%, and the agency says discussions should focus on the midpoint rather than the interval's edges.
The Middle East accounts for roughly 42% of global urea exports and 27% of ammonia exports, according to J.P. Morgan Global Research, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year pushed global nitrogen benchmarks up 25% to 50% from the end of February. JPMorgan economist Nora Szentivanyi said rising fertilizer prices could temporarily lift global food inflation to 4-5%.
However, the JPMorgan note being circulated was published in April, and fertilizer prices have since eased. Retail urea peaked near $864 a ton in mid-May before averaging $678 in early August, a roughly 21% decline, according to DTN Progressive Farmer. Anhydrous ammonia fell from $1,126 to $963 over the same period, though phosphates like DAP remain up 12% year-over-year and anhydrous up 26%.
Current U.S. grocery inflation is running around 2.7%, with the increase concentrated in beef, which rose 11.8% in June and is forecast to climb 10.7% for the full year due to the smallest U.S. cattle herd in 75 years. Egg prices, by contrast, are projected to fall more than 30% in 2026, while fresh vegetable prices are seen rising 6.8%.