The AI capex trade is getting stretched.

$AMZN, $META, $MSFT, and $GOOG are all guiding for higher capex this year than their entire operating cash flow last year .
That is an enormous level of spending.
But after such aggressive upward revisions, it becomes much harder for capex expectations to keep moving meaningfully higher from here.
This is especially important for semiconductors, where a lot of the AI infrastructure boom is already being priced in.
When some semi stocks are trading at 25–30x sales , there is very little room for disappointment.
Be careful chasing semis at extreme valuations.