DZ Bank Issues Bearish $100 Price Target on $SPCX Amid Share Unlocks

SpaceX ($SPCX) closed at $134 on August 20, down about 6% over five days and roughly 17% year-to-date, well below its post-IPO high of $225.64 in June.
DZ Bank analyst Markus Leistner initiated coverage with a Sell rating and $100 price target, implying about 25% downside from the August 20 close, according to 24/7 Wall St. Leistner warned of "crash risk in the valuation orbit," arguing SpaceX's spending is too large to justify its current price. The company spent $18.37 billion on capital projects in Q2, with $15.83 billion going to AI computing infrastructure, per Reuters, and posted a $541 million net loss despite rising revenue. SpaceX also closed a $60 billion all-stock purchase of Cursor on August 14, issuing about 389 million new shares, and had approached AI startup Cognition, valued near $26 billion, before those talks ended.
Leistner also questioned SpaceX's $28.5 trillion total addressable market claim from its IPO filing, noting AI makes up about 93% of that figure while space and connectivity — the businesses generating revenue today — account for under 7%.
The Sell rating landed alongside SpaceX's second post-IPO lockup expiration on August 20, which freed up to 319 million restricted shares, about 7% of shares under the 180-day lockup, according to GuruFocus. Additional unlocks are scheduled across more than a dozen dates through late 2026. CEO Elon Musk, who owns about 48% of SpaceX, remains restricted from selling until June 12, 2027.
Phillip Securities' Glenn Thum also holds a Sell rating with a $75 target, citing customer concentration and cancelable contracts, while Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas rates the stock a Buy with a $300 base target on Starlink cash flow and AI upside. The Wall Street average target is $228.59.