U.S. unemployment expectations rise to highest since 2020

U.S. consumers are becoming increasingly concerned about the labor market. The perceived probability that unemployment will be higher one year from now rose 1.6 percentage points in August to 44.4%, the highest level since April 2020.
Excluding the pandemic period, the reading is the highest since the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations began in 2013. Concern is particularly elevated among households earning more than $100,000, where the probability reached 50.3%, the second-highest reading on record.
The deterioration in employment expectations points to weakening consumer confidence around job security, even though the survey measures perceptions rather than actual future unemployment.