Social Security Trust Fund Set to Run Dry in 2032, Triggering Automatic 22% Benefit Cut

Social Security's trust fund is projected to run dry in 2032, which would trigger an automatic 22% cut to benefits for every retiree at once. The program already spends more than it collects, and the shortfall is projected to widen to nearly 7% of every taxable paycheck by the 2080s.
There are three ways to close the gap: cut benefits, raise the 12.4% payroll tax, or fund the shortfall from the general budget. The argument is that Washington will choose the third option, since a 22% cut to nearly 70 million voters would end political careers, meaning the difference would be borrowed, adding more Treasury supply on top of a deficit already pushing long yields higher.
The conclusion: either retirees take the cut in 2032, or the bond market bears the cost of the delay.