The Stock-Bond Relationship Has Completely Flipped

The 90-day correlation between the 10-year Treasury yield and the S&P 500 has fallen to -0.48 , its most negative reading since 1999 and below the -0.42 low recorded during the 2022 bear market.
This means rising yields have recently been associated with weaker equity performance, while falling yields have supported stocks. Before the pandemic, the correlation remained positive for more than a decade as higher yields were often viewed as a sign of stronger economic growth.
Today’s negative correlation suggests investors increasingly see higher yields as a reflection of inflation uncertainty and fiscal concerns rather than economic strength.
All eyes are on the bond market.