The U.S. Consumer Just Turned Negative for the First Time This Year

Control-group retail sales, which track everyday spending categories that feed directly into GDP, fell 0.4% in July after months of gains. Headline retail sales dropped 0.6%, while the economy shed 23,000 jobs during the same month.
Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of the economy, making its resilience central to the bull case. Companies continue to raise guidance, but underlying demand just posted its first monthly decline of 2026.