Oil traders made a risky bet during the Iran war: Trump would not let the conflict turn into a full-blown oil...

And for now, they were right.
Even with the Strait of Hormuz disruption, oil never fully spiraled out of control. Markets believed a deal would come before gasoline prices and inflation became politically painful.
Now the US–Iran framework has cooled the fear of a massive oil spike.
But the story is not over. Inventories were drained hard during the conflict, and refilling them could keep oil markets volatile.
For crypto and stocks, the key question is simple: if oil pressure eases, does risk appetite finally get some room to breathe?