Gavin Baker Says Anthropic’s S-1 Could Break the AI Bear Case

Atreides founder Gavin Baker says Anthropic’s eventual public S-1 could become one of the most important documents for the entire AI trade.
His argument centers on one question: are AI tokens actually being sold below cost?
A major part of the bearish AI thesis assumes frontier-model economics are structurally unprofitable and that today’s demand is being subsidized by massive infrastructure spending.
Baker argues the opposite — that most tokens are already profitable, Anthropic is generating real operating cash, and OpenAI is moving toward the same point.
That makes Anthropic’s audited financials critical.
If the filing shows strong gross margins and real cash generation, investors positioned around an “AI is uneconomic” thesis may be forced to rethink exposure across $NVDA, $TSM, $MU and the hyperscalers.
If it shows heavily subsidized token economics, the bear case gets much stronger.
Anthropic has already filed confidentially for an IPO. The market is now waiting for the public S-1 to reveal the numbers that could settle the debate.