Analysis Warns Rising U.S. National Debt Outpacing GDP Growth Keeps Pressure on Long-Term Yields

U.S. federal debt has expanded by $32 trillion since 2006 while the overall economy grew by $19 trillion, resulting in debt compounding nearly twice as fast as the GDP servicing it.
This divergence has pushed federal debt held by the public from under 40% of GDP to roughly 100%, with Congressional Budget Office projections pointing toward 175%. As debt outpaces economic output, escalating interest expenses crowd out other budgetary allocations. The analysis notes that nations cannot easily grow out of such deficits when debt compounds faster than income, nor can they inflate away the burden without bond markets demanding higher yields, cementing the long-term Treasury yield as the primary remaining check on fiscal policy.