JPMorgan Warns Global Food Prices Could Surge 5% in Early 2027 on Fertilizer Shortages, El Niño

JPMorgan warns global food prices could surge 5% in the first half of 2027 as fertilizer shortages and a potentially historic El Niño threaten harvests worldwide.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that the global food supply has become "collateral damage" in conflicts involving the U.S., Iran and Israel, Russia and Ukraine, and the Houthis and Saudi Arabia. The Strait of Hormuz closure has disrupted roughly one-third of global nitrogen fertilizer flows, and even if supplies recover, missed planting windows could reduce crop yields for up to a year.
Forecasters see a more than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño, increasing the risk of droughts, floods, and further supply shocks. The U.S. may avoid the worst shortages, but Americans could still pay more for import-dependent staples such as coffee, cocoa, and sugar.