Fed Minutes Set to Reveal How Officials View the Next Rate Hikes

The Fed's FOMC minutes are due today at 2 PM ET following Kevin Warsh's first rate hike as Fed Chair, when policymakers voted unanimously 12-0 to raise rates to 3.75%-4.00%.
The latest dot plot points to one more hike in 2026, while inflation remains around 3.7%. Markets currently see an 86% chance of another hike by December, even as the probability of an October move has fallen to 22%.
Traders will be watching whether officials discussed a larger hike, how broadly policymakers support additional tightening and whether concerns about inflation have intensified. The answers could drive volatility across bonds, the US dollar, stocks and crypto.