Stratechery's Ben Thompson Predicts Major Intel Foundry Deal Driven by TSMC Scarcity

According to Stratechery's Ben Thompson, Big Tech companies are now economically driven to qualify Intel as a backup chipmaker due to acute supply constraints at TSMC.
Speaking on the Invest Like the Best podcast, Thompson explained that qualifying a second logic foundry like Intel or Samsung historically made little rational sense for customers when TSMC could meet all demand. The switching costs and partnership burdens acted as an expensive "insurance premium" that nobody voluntarily paid. However, TSMC's underinvestment between 2023 and 2025 has created enough scarcity that hyperscalers are now forced to pay that premium.
Thompson expects a major new Intel foundry partner announcement soon, a shift that would validate former CEO Pat Gelsinger's long-standing push for second-sourcing. A confirmed hyperscaler deal for Intel's 18A or 14A nodes would serve as a significant, trackable catalyst for Intel's future foundry revenue.