Saudi Aramco CEO Warns Oil Buffers Have Thinned as Refined Fuel Squeeze Persists

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that global oil markets face prolonged pressure because commercial buffer inventories have fallen sharply, leaving little margin to absorb future disruptions even as Middle Eastern shipping flows begin to recover. Nasser noted that the global market entered the crisis with nearly 10 billion barrels in reserves, but nearly 3 billion barrels of supply have been lost and more than 1 billion barrels drawn down. Commercial inventories now sit below 6 billion barrels, much of which remains tied up in operational infrastructure. Nasser cautioned that recent G7 emergency reserve releases cannot solve long-term supply deficits, estimating that restocking inventories while satisfying daily consumption could take up to two years.
A significant bottleneck remains in refining capacity rather than crude extraction alone. Kuwait Petroleum CEO Shaikh Nawaf Al-Sabah estimates the conflict has created a deficit of approximately 6 million barrels per day in refined products. In the U.S., diesel inventories dropped to 107.9 million barrels in September—marking the lowest seasonal level since 1982—driving retail diesel prices above $6 per gallon and fueling broader service-sector cost pressures.
Major energy and transportation executives are positioning for persistent tightness despite cooling price targets from Wall Street banks. $CVX CEO Mike Wirth warned that global energy buffers continue to shrink, echoing concerns over upside price risks, while $COP Executive Chairman Ryan Lance pointed to a structurally higher price floor near $65 to $70 for WTI. On the consumer side, $UAL CEO Scott Kirby previously informed staff that the airline was preparing for Brent to reach as high as $175 per barrel, potentially adding $11 billion to its annual fuel expense.