Persian Gulf Oil Exports Fall to 13M Barrels Daily as Crude Prices Return to Previous Highs

Oil shipment volumes from the Persian Gulf have reportedly declined to approximately 13 million barrels per day, compared with a recent peak of 16.5 million barrels per day.
The reduction represents a decline of roughly 3.5 million barrels per day, or about 21%, from the recent high. However, current export volumes reportedly remain substantially above the levels observed during the most severe disruptions in March and April.
Despite the partial recovery in regional oil flows, crude prices have returned to earlier highs, raising questions about how much geopolitical risk is currently reflected in energy markets.
The market commentary argues that oil prices may contain an excessive risk premium relative to the actual volume of disrupted supply. Concerns about shipping security, future export interruptions and the possibility of renewed military escalation can keep prices elevated even when physical flows improve.
However, current shipment volumes alone cannot determine whether oil is overvalued. Global inventories, spare production capacity, tanker availability, insurance costs and expectations for future supply disruptions also influence prices. A sustained recovery in Persian Gulf exports could reduce risk premiums, but that outcome depends on regional security conditions.