Fannie Mae Projects Gradual Home Price Increases Through 2030, Quashing Hopes of a Market Crash

According to Fannie Mae’s August Housing Forecast and Q3 Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES), home prices are not expected to plummet, with mortgage rates likely remaining high through 2026 and 2027.
Key projections and market trends include:
- Cumulative Growth: Fannie Mae forecasts a cumulative national home price increase of 14.7% over the next five years, translating to a gradual rise from the Federal Reserve's Q2 2026 average sales price of $502,700 up to an estimated $575,987 by Q4 2030.
- Annual Price Projections: Projected annual price increases from Q3 2026 to Q4 2030 include 2.5% in 2026, 2.2% in 2027, 2.7% in 2028, 3.1% in 2029, and 3.3% in 2030.
- Background on Affordability: Pandemic-era inflation spiked average home sale prices from $371,100 in Q2 2020 to a peak of $525,100 by Q2 2022 due to rock-bottom mortgage rates. While current price jumps are far more modest, buyers are advised to focus on affordability and building equity rather than waiting for dramatic price cuts.