Bitcoin's 23% Weekly Surge Marks One of Its Strongest "Digital Gold" Weeks Ever

Bitcoin surged roughly 23% this week, its best performance in more than three years, while the S&P 500 ($SPX) fell, gold ($GC) jumped about 5%, and the dollar ($DXY) declined. The move accelerated after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled the size of planned buybacks for longer-dated Treasurys on Wednesday, sending the 30-year yield ($TYX) down 9 basis points as bitcoin jumped 7% and gold rallied 4%. By Friday, the 30-year yield had recovered almost its entire drop, but bitcoin and gold held their gains, with bitcoin up more than 10% and gold adding another 2%.
Coinage founder Zack Guzman said bitcoin has "established itself as a bit of a debasement trade," noting the rally has been mostly spot-driven rather than leverage-driven. There have been six previous weeks since 2015 when bitcoin gained more than 15% while stocks fell, gold rose, and the dollar declined — but all of those came with falling 30-year yields, unlike this week's episode. Bitcoin's 20-day correlation with the S&P 500 collapsed from about 0.43 to near zero, while its correlation with gold climbed above 0.5, though over a full year bitcoin still tends to trade more like stocks than gold.
Historically, weeks with bitcoin gains above 15% have preceded further strength, with a median one-month return of about 8.1% and a one-year median return of about 52.5%. However, August has historically been a weak month for bitcoin, with a median loss of roughly 8% since 2015.