Why is CNH less likely to significantly appreciate?

CNH unlikely to significantly appreciate despite China’s >$1tn YTD trade surplus boost and a 4% trade-weighted yuan weakening. Appreciation requires a high bar; recent strength likely seasonal. Near-term momentum may push USDCNH <7, but medium term: stable, range-bound.
Key drivers:
CNH is heavily managed by PBoC under a low-vol FX framework.
If policy remains unchanged, USDCNH direction will mirror the dollar: 2026 outlook expects a bumpy dollar bottoming in 1H, then a stronger reversal in 2H → limits yuan strength vs USD.
Historically, USDCNH has been dominated by dollar movements.