Fed Rate Radar (@fed_rate_radar)
Richmond Fed's Barkin warns of a reckoning on U.S. debt
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin is warning that U.S. debt above $40T eventually carries a serious market risk.
“There will be a reckoning on this as it goes forward. No one can tell you when. At some point, people stop buying your debt and that’s the risk out there.”
The concern is straightforward: persistent deficits require an enormous amount of Treasury issuance, and the system depends on investors remaining willing to absorb that supply.
Barkin also described July's rate decision as a “close call,” reinforcing how finely balanced the Fed's policy debate remains.
For $UST, fiscal sustainability and monetary policy are becoming increasingly difficult to separate.