Michael Green Says Mega-Cap Stocks Look Massively Overvalued but Still Tells Investors to Stay Passive

Michael Green argues that some of the largest S&P 500 stocks look dramatically overpriced under a traditional dividend discount model.
Speaking on How I Invest, Green ran a Bloomberg DDM analysis on roughly the 10 to 25 largest companies in the index, including $AAPL.
The model reportedly produced implied fair values near one-fifteenth of current market prices.
That would imply declines of roughly 93% before those stocks reached the model’s estimated fair value.
Green stresses that the exercise is illustrative rather than a forecast.
Yet he has also spent years telling ordinary investors to remain invested through passive strategies.
His reasoning is that the risk is systemic and difficult for individual investors to diversify away from.
That creates an unusual tension in the passive-investing debate.
If index concentration and valuation distortions are as extreme as the model suggests, investors may recognize the risk without having an obvious alternative that avoids the same system entirely.