Russia Falls 1.17M Bpd Below OPEC+ Quota as Energy Strikes Tighten Supply

Russia produced roughly 1.17 million barrels per day below its OPEC+ quota in August.
Required output sits near 9.8 million barrels per day, while actual production has reportedly fallen to around 8.6 million and continues to weaken as Ukrainian strikes hit Russian energy infrastructure.
That creates a major problem for the market’s supply assumptions.
OPEC+ may have spare capacity on paper, but Russia cannot contribute barrels it is physically unable to produce.
That is the “phantom barrel” problem.
If traders are pricing future supply based on capacity that never actually reaches the market, the expected glut becomes much less credible.
That helps explain why crude can remain near $100 even while the market continues to talk about abundant OPEC+ spare capacity.
The key question is whether Russian output keeps deteriorating and forces traders to reprice the real, rather than theoretical, amount of oil available.