JPMorgan Forecasts Bitcoin to Outperform Stocks and Gold Over the Next Decade

JPMorgan Asset Management expects Bitcoin to generate an annualized return of approximately 10% over the next 10 to 15 years, according to its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report. The projection outpaces the firm's return forecasts for U.S. large-cap equities at 7.5%, U.S. bonds at 5.6%, and gold at 5.5%, marking the first time the digital asset has been included in the 31-year-old publication.
Despite leading the forecast table, the firm excluded Bitcoin from its model portfolio allocations. JPMorgan estimated Bitcoin's annualized volatility at 55%—roughly three times that of large-cap equities (18%) and gold (17.2%)—noting that severe drawdowns and erratic correlation with traditional assets complicate long-term portfolio integration. While Bitcoin's simple average return was listed at 20.9%, the 10% annualized figure accounts for compound drag from deep periodic drops.
The forecast comes alongside broader institutional adoption trends. Fidelity Digital Assets reported that corporate issuers had accumulated 135,979 Bitcoin by Oct. 5 via perpetual preferred stock offerings, adding to the roughly 12% of total supply held by spot Bitcoin ETFs as of March. The publication represents a notable institutional milestone for JPMorgan, whose asset management division now formally tracks the cryptocurrency alongside traditional asset classes.