S&P 500 Posted Gains After All 19 Midterms Since 1950

Historical data points to a bullish backdrop for U.S. stocks following midterm elections.
According to BNY, the S&P 500 gained in all 19 post-midterm periods from 1950 through 2022, averaging a 16.6% return over its measurement window beginning October 31.
- Weakest gain: +3.0% after the 2014 midterms.
- Strongest gain: +33.6% after the 1954 midterms.
A separate CNBC analysis covering 1980–2024 found that midterm years also outperformed presidential election years in the short term:
- One day: +0.5% vs. −0.1%.
- One week: +1.0% vs. −0.5%.
- One month: +1.5% vs. +0.8%.
Over one year, average returns were nearly identical: +13.7% after midterms versus +13.8% after presidential elections.
The studies use different historical periods and measurement windows, but both point to a positive historical trend for stocks after midterm elections. Whether the pattern continues in 2026 remains to be seen.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.