Treasury Seasonality Points to Continued Pressure in October

Treasury seasonality suggests the bond market could remain under pressure into October.
Between 2016 and 2025, the median monthly return for Treasuries in October was -0.71%, making it the second-worst month of the year over that period.
Only September was weaker, with a median return of -0.86%.
By comparison, November delivered the strongest median monthly return at +0.69%.
The setup comes after an already difficult September.
U.S. 10-year Treasury note futures fell 2.85% during the month, putting them on track for their worst September performance since 2022.
Global government bonds were also down roughly 2.1%, on pace for their weakest September since 2023.
Seasonality does not guarantee another selloff, but the historical pattern suggests October has often remained challenging for Treasuries before conditions improved in November.
With yields already elevated, investors will be watching whether heavy supply, inflation expectations and fiscal concerns extend the weakness into another month.