#EURUSD

▪️ Trade: Buy limit order
▪️ Entry: 1.11673
▪️ Take profit: Open
▪️ Stop loss: 1.11001
▪️ Valid until: Canceled
Market outlook:
We continue to monitor our EUR/USD setup. We have entered several long positions on this pair, capturing upward moves and taking 50% profit before price returned to our entry.
Why is this happening? We are seeing a potential shift in the local trend from bearish to bullish. Such a transition can develop in two ways: either price makes a sharp move lower to sweep liquidity and squeeze long positions before rallying, or it gradually stops making lower lows, starts forming higher local highs and continues upward.
On Friday, we entered another long position, took partial profits and saw the remainder stopped out at breakeven. We then re-entered long. This morning, we again took profit on 50% of the position; the remainder is still open.
The fundamental backdrop also supports our bullish outlook. Eurozone growth in the third quarter came in twice as strong as expected, while the ECB is holding rates steady and has indicated no intention to ease. Oil is turning lower amid talks on Iran, removing a key argument for further Fed rate hikes and potentially weakening support for the dollar.
Major traders are reducing their long dollar exposure ahead of tomorrow’s US elections, which is reflected in this morning’s price action. The euro has been sold for two months on fear, so positive news could now help support a reversal.
Given this backdrop, we continue to look for long entries. A newly formed order block has accumulated near 1.11613 on a lower timeframe. Fresh order blocks are a priority in our analysis because they reflect current market activity.
If the remaining position is stopped out at breakeven, we will look to re-enter long near this order block. If price continues higher without a pullback, we already have an open position; if it retraces, we can look to buy again from support.
Risk management:
In line with our trading strategy, the stop loss is placed at 1.11001, below the 1.11412 level, leaving room for a potential false breakdown. This provides additional protection while keeping risk defined.
Targets:
If the limit order is filled, our first objective is a return to the current area around 1.12206. At that point, we will move the stop loss to breakeven.
Beyond that, the next target is 1.13254, with potential for a further move higher because this level has already been tested in the past. After a long accumulation phase, the euro can produce a strong impulsive move. We believe such a move could develop in the near future, which is why we continue to look for buying opportunities.
The US Dollar Index also supports this scenario. As discussed in yesterday’s market review, price is testing the key 101.395 area, with a significant concentration of buyers’ stop losses below it. Today, the index has already fallen toward that level. We expect the decline could continue to 101.025 and potentially 100.44. Such a move would support the euro and reinforce our bullish scenario.
The order has no expiration date. There is a chance it could be filled during Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls release; we will monitor the situation and provide updates.
The setup meets the rules of our trading strategy. Let’s stay disciplined, traders. Wishing everyone profitable trades and a strong start to the new trading week! 🤝
Trade updates: https://t.me/addlist/1tRFE2bSkE04MWNi