Global Air Travel Stays Near Record Highs Despite Iran War Disruptions

Global air travel remains near record highs despite the major disruptions caused by the Iran war.
That matters for the oil market because aviation is one of the clearest real-time indicators of transport demand.
COVID provided the extreme example of what genuine oil demand destruction looks like.
Flights collapsed, mobility plunged and fuel consumption fell sharply across the global economy.
Today’s environment looks very different.
Geopolitical risk is disrupting routes, increasing travel costs and creating uncertainty, but underlying passenger demand has remained resilient.
That suggests the current oil market is dealing more with supply risk than broad-based demand destruction.
As long as global travel activity stays elevated, jet fuel consumption should continue providing support to refined-product demand.
The key distinction is important: high oil prices can eventually weaken demand, but the current data does not resemble the scale of destruction seen during the pandemic.
For now, resilient air travel suggests the global economy is still absorbing elevated energy prices better than many expected.