Elon Musk Says SpaceX and Tesla Have Formed Committees to Study a Potential Merger, Calls It "a Good Idea" but...

$SPCX now carries a market value above $2 trillion, while $TSLA sits near $1.5 trillion. Elon Musk has called combining them "a good idea," with potential gains from cooperating on AI software, chip design, robotics, and launching mass to orbit.
Musk said both companies set up special committees of independent directors at shareholders' request. Because he is conflicted, he cannot take part in the talks, calling the setup "an odd kabuki dance." He also tried to cool expectations: the committees have not agreed on terms, and "there's no guarantee that they will," adding that treating a merger as a sure thing would be "overstating it."
Musk noted that $TSLA would need approval from 50% of all its shareholders, not just those who vote, which he called a high bar. $TSLA shares rose a little less than 2% shortly after the call, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has put the odds of a SpaceX-Tesla merger at 80% to 90% by early 2027. Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management put the chance of a deal within two years at 90%. Investor Ross Gerber argued a combination would look more like SpaceX "bailing out Tesla by buying them over, calling it a merger." Jefferies figures Musk could hold roughly 55% of the voting power if the deal carried no premium, while BNP Paribas warned that SpaceX's cash burn could hold things up.
$SPCX posted its first profitable quarter since its June IPO, earning $4.4 billion after a $1.1 billion loss a year earlier. Revenue of about $14.6 billion topped the $12.7 billion analysts expected. Its Super Intelligence unit brought in $7.6 billion, up from $813 million a year earlier, while connectivity, home to Starlink, landed at $5.2 billion. Anthropic and Google are anchor customers for SpaceX's computing business, but both contracts include 90-day termination clauses.
The companies already partner on Terafab, Musk's chip factory project in Texas, with a first phase of $55 billion per a May SpaceX filing. $TSLA put $2 billion into xAI in January. Musk has offered no timetable.