JPMorgan More Than Doubles SpaceX Price Target to $500 on Surging AI Compute Growth

JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth raised the firm's price target on SpaceX ($SPCX) to $500 from $240 while maintaining an Overweight rating, implying roughly 238% upside from its Oct. 20 close of $147.79. The revision follows Q3 results in which revenue surged 161% year-over-year to $14.6 billion, beating consensus estimates of $12.87 billion, as the company swung to a $4.4 billion profit from a $1.1 billion loss a year earlier.
The bank's bullish thesis models 10 gigawatts of computing capacity online by late 2027, projecting full-year 2027 revenue to reach $254 billion alongside an annualized run rate near $400 billion. Growth continues to be led by AI infrastructure, with SpaceX's Super Intelligence unit expanding 830% year-over-year to $7.6 billion in Q3, while connectivity revenue grew 69% to $5.2 billion.
JPMorgan's projection sits well ahead of broader Wall Street consensus targets:
• Morgan Stanley: Maintained Overweight with a $300 target.
• UBS: Lifted its target to $230, citing AI compute leasing momentum.
• RBC Capital: Reiterated Outperform at $225.
• Mizuho: Raised its target to $205 with an Outperform rating.
• Stifel: Maintained Buy with a $190 target.
Meeting JPMorgan's targets will require significant operational scaling against heavy capital requirements. SpaceX guided for Q1 2027 revenue of $33 billion to $37 billion and projected Q4 capital expenditures between $35 billion and $40 billion, after spending $19.6 billion in Q3. Additional variables include regulatory review surrounding special committees formed by SpaceX and Tesla ($TSLA) to explore a potential merger, alongside the upcoming Starship Flight 15 launch attempt.