Markets are increasingly betting on a U.S.-Iran agreement.

Prediction markets are now pricing a 92% probability that the United States and Iran will reach an agreement by July 31 .
The sharp rise in odds comes as both sides move toward a formal peace framework, with negotiations expected to continue over the coming weeks. Recent reports indicate a tentative agreement that would extend the ceasefire and begin discussions on sanctions relief, frozen assets, and Iran’s nuclear program.
Just a few weeks ago, expectations for a deal were far lower as military tensions escalated and negotiations appeared stalled.
The market’s message is clear:
Investors increasingly believe diplomacy will prevail over further escalation.