JPMorgan Sees HBM Revenue Growing 2.5x in 2027 as Memory Supply Tightens

JPMorgan sees HBM industry revenue potentially growing roughly 2.5x in 2027 as strong volume growth combines with sharply higher pricing.
The bank estimates HBM bit shipments could grow around 63% while pricing rises roughly 54%.
The bigger implication is what that growth does to the rest of the DRAM market.
HBM’s share of total DRAM capacity is expected to rise from roughly 19% to 31% by 2028.
Because HBM consumes substantially more wafer capacity than conventional DRAM, that shift can pull supply away from traditional memory products and keep the broader market tighter for longer.
That tightening is already showing up in $MU’s backlog and customer commitments.
Micron reportedly has around $150 billion in remaining performance obligations, supported by roughly $32 billion in prepayments, while about 75% of its 2027 bit output is already committed.
The company has also left more capacity open in later years, giving it greater pricing flexibility if memory shortages persist into 2028.
For $MU, the key question is whether AI-driven HBM demand can keep conventional DRAM supply constrained long enough to turn what is normally a cyclical memory upturn into a much longer earnings cycle.