Jefferies Flags 13.3GW of Texas Data Center Projects at Risk Under Hinojosa

A potential change in Texas leadership could create significant uncertainty for the state's rapidly expanding data center industry.
Democrat Gina Hinojosa has advocated broader restrictions on new data center development, including a potential moratorium, as part of her challenge to Republican Governor Greg Abbott.
Jefferies estimates that approximately 13.3 gigawatts of planned Texas data center capacity could face risks under a more restrictive regulatory approach.
Texas accounts for roughly 25% of planned US data center capacity through 2030, making state-level policy particularly important for the national AI infrastructure buildout.
The scale of demand is reflected in ERCOT's interconnection request queue, which reportedly reached 474 gigawatts in mid-2026, with data centers accounting for approximately 90%.
The Jefferies estimate represents capacity potentially exposed to policy changes, not projects already canceled. Actual effects would depend on the scope, timing and implementation of any new restrictions.