Commodities Could Be Poised for a Major Rotation as Equity Valuations Rise
The last major commodity cycle began after the dot-com bubble burst. Now, with the AI bubble showing signs of bursting, some investors see parallels with previous market cycles.
After the dot-com crash, commodities reportedly outperformed the S&P 500 by roughly 5x. A similar pattern occurred in the 1970s, when the Nifty Fifty bubble collapsed and commodities surged.
Today, commodities are trading at historically low levels relative to equities. Reaching the previous cycle peak would require commodities to outperform the S&P 500 by approximately 8x.
Apple alone is worth roughly 15 times more than all U.S. commodity ETFs combined. The thesis is that a rotation of trillions of dollars from equities into commodities could drive the next major commodity cycle.