Bitcoin gained after the last 3 US midterms. Will 2026 follow the pattern?

Bitcoin $BTC has posted gains in the 12 months following each of the past three US midterm elections, putting historical market performance back in focus as Americans head to the polls on November 3.
According to CryptoQuant and CoinDesk, Bitcoin's returns over the 12 months following those elections were:
- 2014: +24.5%
- 2018: +44.9%
- 2022: +92.3%
The average gain was approximately 54%, although the path higher was far from smooth. Bitcoin lost more than 45% in the month following the 2018 election before recovering over the subsequent year.
This year's election carries additional significance for the cryptocurrency industry as lawmakers remain divided over the CLARITY Act, a proposed framework for regulating US digital asset markets.
Changes in congressional control could affect the legislation's prospects, while geopolitical tensions involving Iran and uncertainty over Federal Reserve policy continue to influence investor sentiment.
Still, Bitcoin's historical post-election gains cannot be attributed solely to politics. Its four-year halving cycle, global liquidity conditions and institutional demand have also played important roles.
With only three comparable election cycles, the historical pattern offers limited predictive value.
For crypto markets, the more immediate indicators will be Treasury yields, ETF flows and whether regulatory negotiations gain momentum after the election.
Source: CoinDesk, CryptoQuant (October–November 2026)