Bitcoin's Historical Post-Midterm Gains Face a Different Test in 2026

Bitcoin has historically performed strongly in the year following US midterm elections, although CryptoQuant warns that the pattern may reflect cryptocurrency market cycles rather than election outcomes.
According to the firm's analysis, $BTC gained 36.8% in the 12 months following the 2014 midterms, 45.8% after 2018 and 80.8% after 2022. CryptoQuant reports a historical median return of approximately 63% across its sample since 2010.
The timing overlaps with Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle, making it difficult to separate political effects from broader supply and demand dynamics.
CryptoQuant also notes that 2026 is following a different trajectory. The limited historical sample offers an interesting comparison but does not establish a reliable forecast for the coming year.