S&P 500 Has Averaged a 2.1% Gain in the First Half of October During U.S. Midterm Election Years Since 1928

History points to stronger equity returns ahead.
Since 1928, the S&P 500 has risen 2.1% on average during the first half of October in U.S. midterm election years, making it the strongest-performing half-month of Q4.
Over this period, positive returns occurred 71% of the time, the third-best hit rate of the last quarter of the year.
This follows a historically weak second half of September, which has seen an average decline of 1.1%.
In the second half of October, the S&P 500's average return is 0.3%, with a 62% hit rate.
November has historically been even stronger, with the first half averaging a 1.7% return and posting positive returns 79% of the time.
Seasonality is turning more favorable for stocks.