Brent Crude Reportedly Up 90% in 2026 Despite Persian Gulf Oil Flows Returning to Pre-War Levels

Front-month Brent crude futures have reportedly risen approximately 90% since the beginning of 2026, even as oil shipments from the Persian Gulf are said to have recovered to pre-war levels.
The divergence suggests that a substantial geopolitical risk premium may remain embedded in crude prices despite an apparent normalization of physical export volumes.
Traders may be pricing in the possibility of renewed infrastructure attacks, shipping disruptions or future supply restrictions rather than reacting solely to current flows.
However, the reported price increase and shipping recovery require verification. Export volumes alone do not capture production losses, inventories, transportation costs or changes in global demand.