Bitcoin Heads "in Bullish Direction" as Investors Bet on Fed Pause: Chart of the Day

Bitcoin is back and may have an even stronger tailwind after the September jobs report, according to Yahoo Finance. The token hovered near $85,000 on Friday as bond yields briefly eased and seasonal trends turned supportive. Bitcoin has erased most of its year-to-date losses after a tough first half of 2026, and just notched its strongest quarter since 2024, rising 43%.
Fundstrat's head of digital assets, Sean Farrell, said seasonality is becoming a tailwind. October has historically been crypto's strongest month, with the highest median and average returns and around an 80% win rate. "The setup shifted in a bullish direction the past couple of days," Farrell added.
Fed rhetoric has become somewhat more measured, and a weak jobs report has reduced expectations for further rate hikes:
- The U.S. added just 29,000 jobs in September, far below the 84,000 expected, and unemployment ticked up to 4.2%.
- More than 75% of market participants now expect the Fed to hold rates steady at its October meeting.
- CME FedWatch odds of an October hike fell to 14% from 70% earlier this week.
Farrell cautioned that continued stress in sovereign bonds and credit could lead to a short-term drawdown in crypto. He also pointed to a recent decline in 2-year real yields, which could support bitcoin if it continues.
Separately, Citi analyst Alex Saunders raised his base-case bitcoin price forecast to $113,000 from $82,000.