Columbia Paper Estimates AI Revenue Would Need to Hit $3.5 Trillion by 2032, About 8.8% of GDP, to Justify...

For the AI buildout to pay off, Americans will eventually have to spend about 9% of GDP a year on AI services, roughly what the entire country spends on food.
A Columbia paper presented at Brookings estimates AI revenue would need to hit $3.5 trillion by 2032, about 8.8% of GDP, to justify what is being committed today. That is bigger than any investment boom in U.S. history and 7 times what Americans spend on phone, streaming, and internet combined.
The author pointed to computers as a cautionary comparison. Prices fell for 50 straight years, but business spending on computers as a share of GDP plateaued in the 1980s and never climbed again.
The author said AI will almost certainly raise productivity, but whether it delivers the revenue investors are pricing in is another matter, and that gap is what the buildout is underpricing.