Jim Cramer Warns Anthropic IPO Could Determine the Future of the AI Trade

Jim Cramer says Anthropic's upcoming IPO could be "one of the most consequential IPOs in history," arguing that a successful listing may be essential for AI-related stocks to recover. The company filed its IPO paperwork on October 26 and plans to trade under the ticker ANT, with a potential listing as early as November 19 or 20.
Anthropic has committed at least $518 billion over roughly a decade to cloud services, computing power, and infrastructure, with approximately 80% of those commitments non-cancelable or payable regardless of usage. Meanwhile, first-half 2026 revenue surged approximately 1,300% to $16.3 billion, and the company reported an adjusted operating profit, although it has never recorded an annual profit.
Cramer also warned that Anthropic's financial position is closely connected to SpaceX and Nvidia ($NVDA). Anthropic's computing agreement with SpaceX initially involved payments of $1.25 billion per month through May 2029, rising to approximately $3.1 billion monthly starting in December. Anthropic accounted for more than one-third of SpaceX's third-quarter revenue and can terminate the agreement with 90 days' notice beginning in early 2027. A failed deal could affect revenue expectations for SpaceX, Nvidia, and other computing providers.
Anthropic's expected IPO valuation has also declined from earlier expectations of $2 trillion or more to approximately $1 trillion–$1.3 trillion, following a $65 billion funding round at a $965 billion valuation in May. Amazon recorded $16.8 billion in pre-tax gains from its Anthropic investment in Q1, representing more than 40% of its pre-tax income for the period. Cramer believes a successful offering could stabilize the AI trade, while a disappointing debut could intensify concerns over whether AI companies can generate enough profits to justify massive infrastructure spending.