Jim Cramer Reveals Why He Won't Buy $SPCX Despite SpaceX's Explosive AI Growth

Jim Cramer wants to own SpaceX ($SPCX) but is holding off, citing massive capital spending, financing risks, potential share dilution, merger uncertainty, and upcoming insider share unlocks.
Despite reporting strong Q3 2026 results, SpaceX shares have struggled. The stock jumped nearly 8% to $159.31 after earnings on October 21 before falling 16% to $134.27 by November 6.
Key concerns behind Cramer's decision:
- Massive Spending: SpaceX expects Q4 capital expenditures of $35 billion–$40 billion, nearly double Wall Street's $20.1 billion estimate.
- Financing Risks: A roughly $40 billion financing commitment involving Apollo-managed entities purchasing Nvidia chips and leasing them to SpaceX could create additional borrowing or dilution concerns.
- Merger Uncertainty: SpaceX and Tesla have formed special committees to explore a potential combination, raising questions about execution and political scrutiny.
- Share Unlocks: Only about one-third of SpaceX shares are currently freely tradable, with additional lockup expirations expected through mid-2027. Cramer fears increased supply could overwhelm demand.
Despite these risks, SpaceX reported Q3 revenue of $14.6 billion, up 161% year over year, while adjusted EBITDA surged 306% to $8.8 billion. Its Super Intelligence division generated $7.56 billion in revenue, accounting for 52% of total sales.
Cramer estimates that SpaceX trades at approximately 16 times projected 2028 earnings. He is waiting for a more attractive entry point, particularly as upcoming share unlocks and the company's ability to execute its ambitious AI infrastructure expansion could determine the stock's next move.