#USDJPY

▪️ Trade: Sell limit order
▪️ Entry: 160.280
▪️ Take profit: Open
▪️ Stop loss: 162.011
▪️ Valid until: Canceled
Market outlook:
Today we’re looking at a short setup in USD/JPY .
Following the inflation-driven rise in the U.S. Dollar Index, the pair rallied from support at 157.921–158.005 . Key resistance sits above current price at 160.300 . Our approach favors a reaction on the first test of a major level, although price may reverse before reaching it.
We’re watching two scenarios: a sharp upward move into resistance followed by a decline, or a sustained break back below 159.275 , opening the way for a corrective move lower.
Our sell limit is set at 160.280 , just below resistance at 160.300 , to position for a potential spike higher.
We’re also setting an alert at 159.275 . This level currently acts as support. If price breaks below it and confirms it as resistance on a retest, we may consider an alternative short entry.
The 160 area carries particular intervention risk. The fundamental case outlined here points to two moves above that level this year, both followed by Japanese currency intervention, including joint action with the U.S. during the summer for the first time since 1998.
Overnight, Japan’s vice finance minister described exchange-rate moves as excessively rapid, signaling growing concern over yen weakness. Markets also expect a Bank of Japan rate hike in December , against a backdrop of wholesale prices rising 7% year over year and import prices increasing by almost a quarter.
Meanwhile, a Fed rate hike is already largely priced in, potentially limiting further support for the dollar. Together, these factors strengthen our case for watching for a reversal near 160.
Risk management:
For the limit-order setup, the stop loss is set at 162.011 , above the next resistance zone at 161.672–161.765 . This provides room for a false breakout while defining the initial risk.
Targets:
The first objective is a sustained move below 159.275 . After a successful retest from below, we will move the stop to breakeven.
The next target is support at 158.005 .
Further out, 156.500 remains a potential objective. This level has produced repeated rebounds, making it an important area to watch for a liquidity sweep. Another test could result in either a false breakdown or a sustained move lower.
Reaching 156.500 may take more than one session. We’re leaving the take profit open and will manage the position as the structure develops.
The limit order remains active until canceled. We’ll post updates if the setup changes and flag an alternative short opportunity if price establishes itself below 159.275 .
The setup meets our trading system’s criteria. Wishing everyone disciplined and profitable trading 🤝
Trade updates: https://t.me/addlist/1tRFE2bSkE04MWNi