US Inflation Report Faces Data Gap as Investors Assess December Fed Rate Outlook

Tuesday's US consumer price index report is expected to provide an incomplete picture of annual inflation because the Bureau of Labor Statistics says it cannot publish October's 12-month percentage changes following missing price collection during the 2025 government shutdown.
Economists expect consumer prices to have increased approximately 0.3% in October, compared with a reported 0.6% monthly rise in September. The last available annual inflation reading was 3.7%, reflecting a substantial increase from 2.4% in February.
Energy costs have contributed heavily to inflation pressures, with reported annual increases of 74.2% for fuel oil and 34.2% for gasoline. Airfares rose 22.4%, while electricity, natural gas and housing costs also increased. Real average hourly earnings reportedly declined 0.7% over the preceding year.
The missing annual comparison complicates interpretation ahead of the Federal Reserve's December 9 policy decision. Investors will focus on the monthly figures, underlying inflation components and alternative estimates when assessing the possibility of another interest rate increase. The report is scheduled for 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.