Dan Niles Says Apple and Google Could Dominate Consumer AI as Models Become Commoditized

Investor Dan Niles believes Apple ($AAPL) and Google ($GOOGL) are positioned to win the consumer AI market as AI models increasingly become commoditized.
He argues that the biggest winners may be companies controlling distribution rather than the models themselves:
- Apple and Google: Their iOS and Android ecosystems account for roughly 25% and 75% of the global smartphone market, respectively.
- Microsoft ($MSFT): Its Office ecosystem gives it an advantage in enterprise AI.
- Anthropic vs. OpenAI: Niles believes Anthropic is better positioned because businesses are more willing to pay for its products.
Niles remains bearish on both Anthropic and OpenAI over the long term, arguing that the AI model layer will eventually become commoditized.