Study Finds Podcast Sentiment Leads Kalshi Odds, With Trump Criticism Tracking Democrats' Senate Chances at...

On the latest episode of The Prediction Market Desk, macro analyst Ryan Ricci walked through a study testing whether podcast sentiment predicts where prediction markets move.
Ricci collected 976 episodes from the top podcasters with full YouTube shows over the past year, transcribed them and ran them through an algorithm to score sentiment back to December.
He found that those sentiment scores lead Kalshi and the betting markets. Trump criticism rose sharply in early January around the Iran war and led the odds of Democrats taking the Senate, with a 0.74 correlation.
Betrayal sentiment, from podcasters who were active in electing Trump and now say they felt betrayed, spiked in that same January window and again in September.
One tell for the midterms, Ricci noted, is that the races barely came up in recent weeks, which may point to independents being unmotivated heading into the vote.